Has Caitlin Clark lived up to the hype so far in her WNBA rookie season? Experts debate (2024)

The Athletic is launching a new series of sports’ debates in which two writers break down a specific topic. In this WNBA edition, Sabreena Merchant and Ben Pickman discuss Caitlin Clark’s professional start and ponder whether it can be framed as a success for herself and for the league.

Ben Pickman: Sabreena, we’re here to do a debate about Caitlin Clark. Has anyone ever done that before?

Sabreena Merchant: Nope. Never. 😂

As long as we’re here, let me set the scene. The WNBA season is about one month old, the Indiana Fever are in 11th place in the standings, and Caitlin Clark has more technical fouls than the Fever have wins. Things are not off to a great start in the basketball heartland. As the GOAT Diana Taurasi told us, reality was coming for Clark.

Pickman: And yet, I believe this has to be Clark and the Fever’s floor. Even amid her 10-turnover WNBA debut or when she shot 1 of 10 against the New York Liberty, or Indiana’s general team woes, Clark has still shown flashes of why she was the most anticipated prospect in WNBA history.

Merchant: Frankly, it isn’t altogether surprising that as a relatively young team, the Fever have struggled out of the gate. But Clark’s inability to raise Indiana’s offensive production has been a disappointment. The Fever had an above-average offense in 2023, and adding the greatest scorer in college history should have been a net positive. Instead, Clark often doesn’t seem to be on the same page with her teammates. The theory was that she’d have high-level rim-runners and pick-and-roll partners and spacers; instead, the pieces don’t seem to fit together so far, as Indiana has dropped to second-to-last in offensive rating.

Clark’s shooting, her signature skill coming into the pros, also hasn’t been as advertised. A career 37.7 percent 3-point shooter at Iowa on 10.4 attempts per game, Clark is now making 29.7 percent of her triples on similar volume.

“Caitlin is a different type of rookie.”

Caitlin Clark is the @WNBA Rookie of the Month for May 🙌 pic.twitter.com/7n9PiiLtvp

— Indiana Fever (@IndianaFever) June 3, 2024

Pickman: She’s had countless scoring bursts and Clark has been unafraid attacking the basket, having already attempted 56 free throws, the seventh most in the WNBA. Although she’s struggled at times, opponents clearly respect her shooting ability with some of the best defenders in the league face-guarding her well past the 3-point line. She became the third player in WNBA history (along with Candace Parker and Sabrina Ionescu) with 100 or more points, 30 or more rebounds and 30 or more assists in her first six career games. It’s hard to argue that it’s been a total success, but I’m not all that surprised either. I expected some growing pains but thought she was deserving of May’s Rookie of the Month honors.

Merchant: The counting stats may work in her favor, but I wasn’t completely on board with Clark getting Rookie of the Month. Angel Reese had the best net rating of any rookie (with enough minutes to qualify) in May, and Cameron Brink’s been more impactful defensively than Clark has offensively. I’m not sure it ultimately matters, given that the people who chose this award don’t vote on rookie of the year. The point is, I don’t think she’s been the clear-cut top rookie.

Pickman: Clark, though, has had to shoulder more than any rookie. Her usage rate in May was 27.2 percent, and she shouldn’t be docked for being a focal point of scouting reports, even as she struggles at times.

Merchant: Yes! She leads the league with 5.4 turnovers per game, significantly ahead of Alyssa Thomas’ 4.0. Clark is never going to be among the most careful lead guards because of her ambitious passes, but this turnover rate is a little out of control.

It is interesting that Clark is already the No. 1 item on every scouting report, even with another perimeter All-Star on the team in Kelsey Mitchell. She’s being picked up full court and seeing traps/blitzes when a big sets a screen. Opponents are also using bigger, more athletic defenders on her, challenging Clark’s strength, which isn’t quite ready for the pro level. I thought that would manifest itself in poor takes around the basket, but to Clark’s credit, she is actually shooting pretty well at the rim (60.9 percent in the restricted area, per Basketball Reference). The physicality has really affected Clark’s ballhandling, which can’t be overstated.

Pickman: But let’s be clear, that’s how teams should defend Clark at this point. The upgraded flagrant foul on Chicago’s Chennedy Carter was not a basketball play (don’t take my word for it, take the comments of Carter’s coach, Teresa Weatherspoon), but how opponents have guarded Clark has helped new fans learn about the depth of talent around the league.

Accepting the premise that opponents will continue to guard her in this manner, is seeing her struggle a good television product? Does that even matter?

Merchant: Fans have never had to really watch Clark lose like this before, and my hunch is they won’t all stick around for it much longer. Clark’s WNBA debut smashed cable television records, with an average of 2.1 million viewers, but after two consecutive blowout losses, a similar audience didn’t turn up for Indiana’s third game against New York, even though that was on ABC, dropping to 1.71 million viewers. The Fever’s most recent national television game against Chicago, which featured matchups against 2023 and 2024 NCAA champions Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, also came in at a lower viewership number. The appetite for Clark seems to be diminishing as the Fever struggle, even if the overall numbers are still breaking previous WNBA marks.

Pickman: Even if Indiana goes winless until its next game against the Sky on June 16, I expect that rematch rating to balloon. Plus, attendance for Fever games doesn’t seem to be waning. Sunday’s Liberty-Fever game drew 17,274 people and was again a sellout (even with Indiana getting off to a rough start). The Fever have appeared in the nine most well-attended games and lead the WNBA in road attendance, averaging 4,000 more fans per game in their contests than any other team, according to Across the Timeline. I expect that attendance trend to continue, even if Indiana’s struggles do too.

It hasn’t helped the Fever that they’ve played New York three times already and Connecticut twice. There’s been a lot of conversation about the Fever’s schedule, more broadly. They opened with 11 games in 20 days, becoming just the second team since 2007 to do so and playing nearly twice as many as the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces (six). They certainly looked fatigued in their most-recent 36-point loss. What impact do you think that’s had so far on how Clark is being evaluated?

Merchant: The WNBA released its 2024 schedule on Dec. 18, admittedly before Clark declared for the draft, but also after the lottery when Indiana won the No. 1 pick. Even if there was uncertainty about Clark’s decision, the league should have better prepared for this scenario. It has not set her up to succeed from a scheduling perspective. Ben, you mentioned how tired Indiana looked on the second night of its back-to-back (already its second back-to-back of the season) – can you imagine how poor the product would be if the WNBA hadn’t instituted charter flights this year?

Pickman: That’s a great point. For starters, the Fever had more practice time over the first 20 days of the season than they would have without charter flights because they were able to fly out of cities directly after games. The groundwork for the changes to the charter program had been laid before Clark’s arrival in the WNBA, but the star power of the rookie class (and the security concerns that would have been apparent with them flying commercial) certainly accelerated that change. I think that’s another successful component of her first month.

Clark’s first month has brought scrutiny to various aspects of the league. Wide-ranging discourse has followed, even if she seldom, if ever, engages in it. We’re not going to get into everything discussed here — listen to the latest episode of The Athletic Women’s Basketball Podcast for an in-depth conversation on that — but has that also played into your evaluation of Clark’s first month?

Merchant: The nature of that discourse has been another example of Clark’s start to her professional career not going as planned. The expectation was that she would increase the spotlight on the WNBA, but it has happened in some truly uncomfortable ways, whether that was the interaction at her introductory press conference involving Indianapolis Star columnist Gregg Doyel or Pat McAfee calling her a “white b—” on his show.

The adage “any publicity is good publicity” would suggest the WNBA is benefiting overall from these moments, but the racially charged discourse and demeaning of women isn’t healthy for the players in the league nor is it welcoming for new fans. It’s also a lot for Clark to shoulder. The league can’t control what is publicly said about Clark, but ESPN is a broadcast partner, and if she is receiving this type of treatment on those airwaves, that’s a bad look for the WNBA.

Pickman: No matter where you, or me or anyone else stands, though, it has undoubtedly brought more eyeballs to the sport and raised the profile of not just Clark, but her opponents too. One thing is for certain about Clark’s second month, more debates are bound to occur. Let’s do this again soon.

(Photo of Caitlin Clark: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)